Heritage Oil ­ Now everybody is talking about it


It is looking likely that Heritage Oil [HOIL], the UK-listed exploration and production company is set to sell its stake in two fields in Uganda’s Lake Albert Rift Basin, to energy giant ENI of Italy.

ENI are to acquire the 50% working interest Heritage holds in two blocks in the Albert Basin, Blocks 1 and 3A, which it shares with Tullow Oil. Under the deal, Heritage will pay a special dividend of between 90 pence and 100 pence per share to investors, according to many newswires over the weekend.

The deal is said to be worth around $1.3 billion. Anglo-French oil company Perenco is also understood to be waiting in the wings to acquire the assets should the ENI deal not materialise.

It is thought Heritage will use the proceeds from the Italian deal to further develop its assets in the Kurdish region of Iraq where the company has a 75% stake in the Miran block in Kurdistan.

The deal would also means a windfall for Heritage CEO and founder Tony Buckingham, who holds around 33% of Heritage’s stock.

So far Heritage and Eni have declined to comment but, this may change tomorrow. I bought into Heritage Oil early in the summer only to watch it slide for several months. Luckily I topped up on the way down, ever the optimist.

Virgin

Heritage Oil ­ A bit of good news at last?

Heritage Oil [HOIL] has confirmed it has a cash position of US$222 million as of 30 September 09, “which covers ongoing work programmes and current plans for 2010 comfortably” according to a statement by the company today. The FTSE 250 oil and gas company also hinted that they hope to reach a formal agreement with Turkey’s Genel Energy on the proposed $6 billion merger before the end of the year. Heritage originally announced the planned merger back in June and had hoped to have the deal finalised by October.

Heritage Oil’s CEO, Tony Buckingham, said:

“Operationally, Heritage is about to embark on its busiest period ever with high-impact multi-well drilling programmes in Kurdistan and Uganda, providing the potential for a significant increase in oil volumes. The previous successful drilling campaign in Block 1, Uganda, has de-risked the prospects for the upcoming programme in Uganda significantly.”

Heritage’s output in Russia soared by 83% in the third quarter to 422 barrels of oil per day.

A note of caution however came from brokers Evolution Securities who commented that “There is nothing particularly new. All it highlights is a window of activity and although it may reignite interest in the story, any significant movement in share price will depend upon whether Heritage can sign the deal with Genel before Christmas”.

After watching the share price take a hammering recently on lack of news as well as delays in the Genal deal, due to leadership changes in Kurdistan, it’s good to hear any news from Heritage.

Virgin

Enegi oil flowing again


Enegi Oil (LSE: ENEG), the Manchester-based exploration company, today said operations had restarted at its PaP#1-ST#3 well at Garden Hill South in Newfoundland. It said the well had an initial flow at between 580 to 600 barrels of oil per day plus associated gas on a 32/64th choke.

Chief executive, Alan Minty, said: "We are delighted that the well is now flowing, albeit on an interval basis. With the continued development programme that we are planning we believe that the well's full potential will soon be realised.

The CEO also said "The coming months will be an exciting time for the company."

Read into that what you will. Sounds promising?

A Virgin Trader

West China Cement ­ Heading East

After recent rumours that West China Cement [WCC] might be seeking a full listing on the London stock exchange, it seems they have decided instead to list it’s shares in Hong Kong and will review its AIM listing.

According to chairman Robbe Robertson (I thought he was guitarist with the now defunct ‘The Band’ – that brings back good memories.) West China Cement, based in China’s Shaanxi province, will be ‘better positioned and understood’ in Hong Kong than on the AIM.

Floated on AIM at 105p in back in 2006, WCC have done well, aside from a massive share price fall from 250p to 48p, due to problems with flooding.  With the all encompassing recession the price is now 476.50, at close on Friday.

As a virgin shareholder in WCC, (bought in July at 143.00p, then sold for a virgin profit in Aug before buying back in on falls in Sept) what does this relisting mean for us?

If you have any thoughts on this let me know.

Virgin Trader

Gulf Keystone Petroleum bulletin board ramping

Over the last few days, thanks to stock like Gulf Keystone Petroleum [GKP], and to a lesser extent Chariot Oil and Gas [CHAR], we have seen what is a perfect example of bulletin board 'ramping'.

Small investors frequent bulletin boards such as iii, ADVFN and many others looking for advice on what, when and how much to invest in a stock. But they fall, victim to 'share rampers'. These guys spend hours talking up the prospects of a particular share like Gulf Keystone Petroleum in the hope that misguided investors, who have not done their own research, get caught up in the hype and start buying shares in a panic.

The result of this ramping process in one share, such as Gulf Keystone, then infects all the other shares in the same sector, it's like a bulletin board fever. Overnight the boards go from the half a dozen or so messages a day to complete pandemonium. On closer inspection of the actual trades going through during this process, we find they are from small investors jumping in at a price that is already too high. A classic rookie mistake. Take care.

Since Friday morning a small group of bulletin board gurus have been frantically trying to talk the price up beyond 100p. My advice as a virgin trader is to ignore all this bull**** and look for real news about a stock. At the end of the day after all the ramping subsides so will the price. You decide when a stock is at a good price to buy, don't make expensive decisions based bulletin boards they can be a shark pit.

Literally as I write this the price is coming down again.

A Virgin Trader

South Korea ready for an acquisition oil spree

KNOC the South Korean state run National Oil Corporation announced it is in the market for possible acquisitions for five to ten overseas oil companies very soon. These target companies would each be producing 50,000-100,000 barrels per day,

According to Reuters this morning the KNOC CEO Kang Young-won said without elaborating, “We will make an acquisition soon.”

The statement went on to say that KNOC considered this year to be the right time for acquisitions as global stock markets had weakened due to the financial crisis.

KNOC have prioritized regions in the order of Middle East, central Asia, South America, Australia and other Asian countries, Russia and Western Africa.

KNOC pursued a bid for Swiss oil explorer Addax Petroleum Corp. (AXC.TO) but was beaten to the post by Sinopec, China’s top oil refiner, which agreed to buy Addax in June for $7.24 billion, according to Reuters.

Will we now see some frantic positioning by investors trying to guess which companies to jump into in time for some action?

A virgin trader

Everyone is heading over to the Nighthawk diner


A growing confidence over at Nighthawk Energy (AIM: HAWK)

Positive comments are appearing all across the media in regards future potential for Nighthawk Energy (HAWK: AIM).  Hanson Westhouse issued a note on Nighthawk Energy following yesterday’s full-year results, which showed higher revenues along with lower operational losses and costs for the period. These guys give it a 225p price target. That is a whacking premium on today’s share price of 40.25p.

Nighthawk MD David Bramhill reckons the next 12 months have ‘the potential to be transformational’ for the company. Nighthawk which floated back in 2007 at 25p, watched its share price climb to 87.75p before a very slippery slide to a low of 22p.

As the virgin trader bought into Nighthawk only last week this is all good news. Once again it’s time to sit back again, have a coffee and take in a little bulletin board fisticuffs.

A Virgin Trader

Nighthawk Energy can now afford lunch

Nighthawk Energy (HAWK:LSE) the North American based explorer and hydrocarbon production and development company, is a stock I have been watching all summer. For most of that time I have watched the share price gently slide ever lower, is that about to change?

Apart from the completely irrelevant fact that any company named after a ‘Tom Waits’ track plucks on a heart string in by book, revenue has just jumped 3 fold and about time.

According to the company “Nighthawk is in a better financial position than at any time in its history and funds are in place for the development of its core projects for at least the next 12 months,” the company said, adding that it remains debt free. They also commented that operating losses were reduced by some 42 per cent as it continued with an ‘aggressive development and drilling programme.’

Perhaps those many depressed shareholders will have something to feel jolly about soon, excuse the well-worn pun.
Maybe it’s time to put on the Speedo’s and put a toe in?

A Virgin Trader

The Shape of Things to Come ­ It¹s all in the share curve


Over the weekend the trader gave me a little bit of an insight into the world of share trading charts and in particular the ‘curve’. He said that when someone sticks two fingers up at you they are generally in a “V” and they are being rude. I wish I could use my fingers to signal a “J” or possibly a “W”.

The rate at which the stock market has accelerated over the past view months is reminiscent of a train, in an advanced state of decrepitude, hurtling along an overhead railway supported by termite-rotten structures. Sooner or later, at that speed, the train will come off a bend or the velocity of the vibrations it is causing will result in the lines collapsing.

We have had too much experience of markets trying to defy gravity in the past ten years with governments helping shares to deny Newtonian physics.

Y a U, J or possibly W? “V” is the predicted shape of the recession – down and a quick bounce upwards. “J” is the shape of a long slow recovery – down and a long climb back. “W” is the dreaded double dip recession – more like a roller coaster than a railway.

Now it all makes sense.

A Virgin Trader

Roubini warns ŒToo Much, Too Soon, Too Fast

The world renowned New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who accurately predicted the 2007 financial crisis, has sounded another timely warning “Markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast.

At the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Istanbul last week, Roubini said “I see the risk of a correction, especially when the markets now realize that the recovery is not rapid and V-shaped, but more like U- shaped. That might be in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year.” He fears that surplus economies like China and Japan will not boost consumption enough to make up for the downturn in American consumer spending.

According to an article in Bloomberg today ‘The global equity rally has added about $20.1 trillion to the value of stocks worldwide since this year’s low on March 9. Governments have poured about $2 trillion of stimulus into the global economy while central banks have cut interest rates to close to zero in efforts to revive growth’.

Should we be listening to him this time?

On the other hand Steve Leuthold, one of the most successful investors in the world, has called for the S&P 500 to jump as high as 1350.

You buy the ticket, you take the ride.

A Virgin Trader